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A thing I believe that few believe
Kurznachricht. Marc Andreessen ist einer der bekanntesten US-Investoren. In 13 Tweets erklärt er, wie sich Startup-Ideen durchsetzen – und welche Rolle das Timing dabei spielt.
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1/A thing I believe that few believe: Almost all Silicon Valley startup ideas from qualified founders = great ideas. But some are too early.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 21. August 2014
2/Track startups over multiple decades, what you find is that most ideas do end up working. It’s much more a question of „when“ not „if“.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 21. August 2014
3/This is interesting for several reasons. First, it means that criticism of the form „that will never happen“ is usually misguided & wrong.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 21. August 2014
4/Second, it means that a much bigger risk for founders is „too early“, vs „wrong“ or „too late“. Often doesn’t match feedback from others.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 21. August 2014
5/To quote Peter Thiel, it is often better to be the last company to market (hit timing right & take down the entire market) vs the first.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 21. August 2014
6/Third, when you have the timing right, you almost always feel like you’re too late. Terrified you’ve missed the window = great sign.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 21. August 2014
7/When idea X has been in the air, with repeated attempts to build X, yet most customers are not yet doing/using X, it’s never too late.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 21. August 2014
8/Fourth, founders by definition live in the future, see a world that doesn’t yet exist & try to make it so. Nailing timing = hardest thing.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 21. August 2014
9/Which is often why more pragmatic founders end up building the big & important companies — the idealists were just too early.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 21. August 2014
10/Fifth, therefore, most of the great ideas for the next two decades are already known. In labs, in failed startups, in big co prototypes.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 21. August 2014
11/Those ideas are being dismissed now since the early attempts have’t worked. This has the opposite predictive value vs what people think.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 21. August 2014
12/Quoting @GreatDismal, the future is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed — or it’s not yet distributed at all. But it is here.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 21. August 2014
13/The key question is: What ideas are widely dismissed today due to having been tried & failed? Answer is the codex to the next 20 years.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 21. August 2014